The Lastest Survey of SMRC is too earlier

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A survey released on Thursday suggests that the Jakarta gubernatorial election has not significantly altered the national political map ahead of the 2019 presidential and legislative elections.

The survey, commissioned by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, reveals that a majority of Indonesians still favor President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), even though former Jakarta governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama – the PDI-P’s gubernatorial candidate and Jokowi’s close ally – lost in the April 19 runoff election.

The research found 53.7 percent of 1,350 respondents supported Jokowi for the 2019 election in a head-to-head match-up against Gerindra Party patron Prabowo Subianto, who only received 17.2 percent of support.

The PDI-P still leads with 21.7 percent support, while the Gerindra Party, whose gubernatorial candidate Anies Baswedan won the Jakarta gubernatorial seat, trails in second place with 9.3 percent. Both parties’ electability increased by 4 percent in the last five to six months.

“Despite losing the election, the PDI-P’s electability has not dropped and has even increased. Gerindra’s electability increased at the same rate as the PDI-P’s. If indeed the Jakarta election radically affected the nation’s political landscape, Gerindra’s electability should have exceeded the PDI-P’s electability by now,” SMRC executive director Djayadi Hanan said.

He said the stable position of Jokowi and the PDI-P was due to a relatively stable and positive assessment given by the respondents in relation to the country’s economic, political, legal and security condition. Some 57 percent of respondents say the economic condition at the national level is positive.

Too Earlier

However, SMRC’s survey might be true on the possibility of Jokowi’s re-elected at 2019 presidential election because until now we can’t see a capable and a humble leader as President Jokowi. The victory of Jokowi’s at 2019 presidential elections will be more bigger than ever if all of an infrastructure development program which was planed and implemented by during Jokowi’s administration as “ a jack card” to win the next president elections and Jokowi will be attracted by all political party to be joined.

I think Prabowo Subianto doesn’t an equal political challenger for Jokowi at the next presidential elections, because Indonesian people didn’t know about Prabowo’s outcome in the context of Indonesian development even people didn’t know about Prabowo’s leadership at Gerindra Party because of the lack of promotion, a political advertorial and an information about that in the newspaper, social media or an internet media.

I think Jokowi will be easy to win the next presidential election if his power has been completely done during his tenure. Because of that, it might be predicted that a political turbulent will be created by Jokowi’s opposition since next year until the next presidential election to bother his leadership.

Meanwhile about the chances of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) will be dominated the next legislative elections in 2019 so far is too earlier and exactly its seems like “ a prank political prediction”.

At least, its will be pushed by PDIP political maneuvers to support the KPK inquiry proposal. Those problems is a seriously national problems because mostly of Indonesian people rejected. Although defying mounting criticism, the House of Representatives has kicked off its inquiry into the nation’s top antigraft body, which experts believe is legally flawed and a blatant act of retaliation by the dozens of lawmakers who have been implicated in numerous graft cases over the years.

The KPK has received support from various civil society groups since the announcement of the inquiry plan, with more than 24,000 people signing a petition early last month opposing the inquiry proposal.

Activists have called the inquiry “abusive” and see it as an effort to undermine the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), one of the state bodies most trusted by the public, according to surveys.

In contrast, the House has a notorious reputation as one of the most corrupt state institutions. As many as eight currently serving lawmakers have been named suspects by the KPK.

PDIP and Gerindra Party has joined to signing the inquiry proposal, and its will be analysed as a political blatant blunder from both parties. The general opinion has stated that whatever a political party which was signed on the inquiry proposal has been taken as “ a common enemies”.

On these cases, The National Awakening Party (PKB), Social Prosperous Party (PKS) and Democrat Party have been taking a public support on their political stance to reject the KPK’s inquiry proposal.

If we are seriously monitoring recent political progress, we can see that PKS always makes a good political moves on a crucial national political discourse or national political policies. Meanwhile, PKB had been taken a wrong political stance at second round Jakarta’s gubernatorial elections, because the party which led by Muhaimin Iskandar had been supported Ahok, which a political decision which was regretted by mostly of Muslim communities in Jakarta and Indonesia. Even, Democrat Party political stance had neutraled at second round Jakarta’s gubernatorial elections had been judged as “un-clear political decision” and these decision had been regretted by Democrat Party supporters.

*) The author is a political analyst at LAPD Jakarta.