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By : Toni Ervianto
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT-Eventhough Islamic State had officially been defeated in Iraq and Syria, but nothing any person has predicted that terror threat has been crushed forever.
Defeating terror groups is not an easy job because their members had been sworning that they must obey only to one user is a chaliph until their dead.
This pledge is trigerred and lightered terror group members through single attacks which known as lone-wolf have been occuring in many countries. Latest, the lone-wolf actions had been happened in South France. The perpetrator is affiliated with IS and in those actions he was killed two persons but finally the perpetrator shot by France’s security apparatus.
Amid the preparation of concurrant regional elections which has been slated in June 2018, its has any potential threat from cell terror groups eventhough 88 Anti Terror Squad has thwarted cell terror groups arround Indonesia.
The possibility of cell terror threat during the next regional elections is needed to anticipate, because many of triggers have been readied and anytime could be occured such as several fundamental vested interest groups have been signed a political contract with several candidates of governor, mayor and regent. It must be worried if their candidates defeated at those events, their might have done several mass brawl and security disturbance arround Indonesia.
Besides that, according to General Elections Vulnerability Index which had been published by the General Elections Supervisory Body or Bawaslu, Indonesia has several provinces, cities and regencies which had categorized as vulnerability places such as West Kalimantan, North Sumatera, Papua, South Sumatera, Central Sulawesi, Mollucas, North Mollucas, South Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara, Riau etc. In those places, security gap could be occured and those make cell terror groups have a good time to make unsecure situation from little scale such as an intimidation and to intervere Bawaslu’s and the General Elections Committee or KPU’s members, medium scale uncertainty such as mass brawl and large scale unsecurity such as deadly terror attacks through lone-wolf or planned terror attacks.
Because of that, monitoring, surveillancing and predicting the current capability to attacks from cell terror groups must be made by security and an intelligence communities in Indonesia, because the failure to do that just make “nightmare” will be happened.
The writer had earned his master at the University of Indonesia (UI)