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Political Analysis tend to conclude in general that all the terrorist action that had happened in this country are leaning to the ISIS Organization and its interest namely to develop its ideological and political doctrine called the Caliphate (Khilafah). The main essential character of ISIS ideological and Political doctrine of the Caliphate is to trans nationally unite a number of countries in certain area of the World populated mostly by Moslems and to be run based on the religious ideological and political system called the Caliphate. This has been the political adventurer done by ISIS in Northern part of Irak and a part of Syria in the recent years and eventually South East Asia is apparently a part of the World to have that kind of situation.
Al Qaeda which was predicted to be the group behind the terrorist activity in Manchester and Kabul as other terrorist group are not popular in South East Asia. The objective of Alkhaeda is to fight against the Western Imperialism. Though might be the terrorist activities in London and Afganistan were done by the Al Qaeda element but all the terrorist activities in South East ASsia were claimed as the ISIS action.
However now ISIS has to withdraw from its strategic position in Syria that has been controlled by its armed power and making this area as its power base during its political adventurer in the recent years. The Syrian territory that was controlled by ISIS before is clearly the strategic position of the Country of Syria in term of military, political and economic interest. The failure of ISIS to defend its power base in Syria and driven out of the this country will definitely become the serious blow to ISIS in Syria.
Accordingly the various terrorist activities of ISIS supporters in all around the world are considered important position to show the political existence and the influence of ISIS. In term of the economic power the defeat of ISIS in Syria is definitely the lost of the economic power of ISIS which has been depending much to the control of ISIS on the illegal oil trade in the Middle East centralized in Syria. However the ISIS terrorist action in various part of the world such as in South East Asia will not be likely affected by the economic blow of ISIS in Syria because the ISIS action in other part of the world is supported by local financial collection.
Based on this analysis the ISIS political presence in the Middle East could be expected weaken but the emerge of a certain ISIS terrorism activities in various parts of the world such as in Marawi in Southern part of Mindanao, the Philippines will not be affected. However with the firm military operation it could be likely the Philippines military will soon totally control the territory of Marawi in the southern part of Mindanao, in the Southern part of the Philippines. Definitely the possible establishment of joint or combined military operation of a number of countries among the ASEAN countries such as done in Syria to support the Philippines military operation will definitely make the collapse of the ISIS sympathizers in Marawi more rapidly. This idea of course does not intend to describe the Philippines Armed Forces is not strong enough to demolish the ISIS terrorist in Marawi.
It is strategic consideration though ISIS is in a setback position now but to prevent the debacle of the security situation of South East of Asia because of ISIS terrorist action likely it would be definitely no harm if military cooperation among the countries of ASEAN jointly or in the combined military operation to be conducted to support dissolving any ISIS military upheaval in South East Asia is likely important to be anticipated by the ASEAN members country especially among the defense and security leaders of ASEAN countries.
Beside of it, it should be likely important for the Country of South East Asia to evaluate that the failure of the ISIS supporters in Marawi, in Southern part of The Philippines could likely provoke the sporadic terrorist action in the country of South East Asia, included Indonesia.
ISIS terrorist activities are the psychological warfare
Accordingly the anticipation on the possible increase of ISIS terrorist activities as the psychological warfare campaign should be made by all the defense and security forces of the country in South East Asia such as Indonesia.
It is likely correct the analysis of General Gatot Nurmantyo the Commander of TNI who considered the ISIS terrorist activities are actually the evil deed against the ASEAN States so it should not be just considered as the criminal act so it is important to be responded by all the military leaders in ASSEAN countries pertinently, especially Indonesia. The ISIS terrorism is definitely the action of the devil against the ASEAN states. The objective of those various terrorist action of ISIS supporters in South East Asia are definitely to make the favorable situation for ISIS campaign on its Ideological and political doctrine in South East Asia. So definitely those ISIS terrorist activities are the psychological warfare and clearly it is political movement against the ASEAN states including Indonesia.
Accordingly General Gatot Nurmantyo strongly is of the opinion that considering the ISIS terrorist activities just as the criminal action to be definitely wrong. Accordingly the tirelessly debate in the House of Representative and among a number of Politician and legal experts about the involvement of TNI in the effort to demolish the ISIS terrorist threat is unwise and useless attitude.
The unending busy debate about the term of detention of the terrorist and the legal right of TNI to eradicate the ISIS terrorists were definitely indicating the lack of understanding of various Indonesian political and legal or human right activists about what has been happening in the world. ISIS terrorist activities are definitely psychological warfare concept to destabilize South East Asian countries as the preconditioning for easily introducing the ideological and political doctrine of the Caliphate (Khilafah).
The active terrorist activities will definitely erase the people trust to the Government. So it is definitely true that all of ISIS terrorist activities were not just the criminal act because it has been definitely approved that ISIS terrorist action were ideological and political motivated to establish the South East Asia Caliphate so the struggle against ISIS terrorist threat should not be considered as temporarily mission because the defeat of ISIS in Syria will not totally diminish the existence of ISIS and its activities in the Middle East and in other parts of the World including South East Asia.
In conclusion actually Indonesia is now and then will be continuously facing the ideological and political threat posed by ISIS and ISIS terrorist activities are the psychological warfare activities used to de-stabilize the Country in South East Asia to create the convenient situation for the embark of the further political movement in its effort to bring the ISIS ideological and Political doctrine into the Country of South East Asia.
The technical problem of the country of Indonesia of to day to be actually just the special legal authority for The President of The Republic of Indonesia. The House of Representative is expected to approve for the revise of Law No 15 of 2003 on Terrorism strengthening the authority of the President of the Republic of Indonesia to utilize TNI to eradicate all the un-intended threat faces by the Country of Indonesia posed by Marxism, Leninism, Communism and all Ideological and political doctrine which are against the Four Pillars of the Country of Indonesia mainly Pancasila Ideology.
This is actually a part of the national interest demanding the revision of the idea of Reform Era which is definitely wishing to limit the role of TNI just as the Defense Force for the Conventional War. The Reform Era definitely wishes the role of TNI should be limited and preventing TNI to return to dual function character. Definitely TNI would not oppose this principle demand of the Reform Era, definitely TNI does not want to return to the New Order political system, but TNI believes it has a specific capability usefully for protecting the country against the ideological and political motivated terrorist threat.
Now a specific situation has happened in the country. And the country of Indonesia internally needs the legal ad democratic umbrella that authorize the President of the Republic of Indonesia at any time to utilize TNI to eliminate the Ideology and Political Doctrines which is against the four pillars of The Country of Indonesia. This is the situation is facing by the Country of Indonesia because of the ISIS threat.
Some of national strategic thinkers are of the opinion that ISIS threat should be apparently faced nationally utilizing and implementing the specific military capability called the Territorial Military Capability to support the urgent preventive action of the government to strengthen the ideological and political resistance of the Indonesian people against the Caliphate ideological and political doctrine campaigning by ISIS.
For this purposed concept it is definitely true that TNI territorial miitary capability is very useful in supporting the government effort to strengthen the Ideological and Political resistance among the Indonesian society. It is likely important for TNI leadership beside the conventional military capability it is also important to refresh the in-conventional warfare capability of TNI, namely the territorial military capability. Definitely public question will raise : What is the territorial military capability of TNI. The answer is simple Territorial Military Capability Doctrine of TNI is the utilization of human characters in TNI Military Operation which is greeted by any people in the world as it was demonstrated by TNI in its international mission in the UN Peace Keeping Force. Definitely the TNI presence in the Pacific island, in Africa and in the Middle East have been greeted and welcomed.
Realizing the world development to day it is definitely clear the utilization of TNI to combat the ISIS threat is definitely essential. ISIS threat should be faced militarily and territorially. And luckily for this country of Indonesia TNI was born with special capability professionally conducting the Conventional Warfare and TNI is also professionally conducting the in-conventional Warfare or territorial Warfare capability to eradicate any ideological and political doctrine which is against Pancasila and the other three principles of four pillars of the country of Indonesia (The Constitution of 1945, the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia and the Spirit of Bhineka Tunggal Ika).
*) Political and Security Observer.